The 2011 Emmys: Who Will Win, Who Should Win, and Why 437 comments facebook twitter digg by: Matt Whitfield Jon Hamm and Ty Burrell AMC and ABC Yep,

The 2011 Emmys: Who Will Win, Who Should Win, and Why

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by: Matt Whitfield
Jon Hamm and Ty Burrell
AMC and ABC Yep, it's that time of year again ... time to hand out those sharp-looking statuettes and time to watch "Mad Men" and "Modern Family" win the majority of ‘em. But there's a big difference between who'll take home the gold and who should at the 63rd Primetime Emmy Awards.

Outstanding Drama Series
Nominees: "Boardwalk Empire," "Dexter," "Friday Night Lights," "Game of Thrones," "The Good Wife," "Mad Men"
Who Will Win: "Mad Men"
Who Should Win: "Game of Thrones"
Why: This is an incredibly tight, four-way race between HBO newbies "Boardwalk Empire" and "Game of Thrones," CBS's "The Good Wife," and AMC's "Mad Men," but you'd be a fool to bet against the ‘60s-set vet, which has won three times in a row. To make matters worse for "Mad Men's" competition, the critical darling also delivered its best season and greatest performances to date, solidifying yet another statuette for the Sterling Cooper Draper Pryce posse.

Outstanding Comedy Series
Nominees: "The Big Bang Theory," "Glee," "Modern Family," "The Office," "Parks and Recreation," "30 Rock"
Who Will Win: "Modern Family"
Who Should Win: "Parks and Recreation"
Why: With "Glee," "The Office," and "30 Rock" fading fast, "The Big Bang Theory" not being taken seriously by some, and too few eyeballs on "Parks and Rec," "Modern Family" has little competition in the comedy category this go-round. That said, "MF's" large ensemble seems to gel more and more with each passing episode, suggesting that they'll continue to dominate for years to come.

[Related: Why Are TV's Top-Rated Shows Ignored at the Emmys?]

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Nominees: Steve Buscemi ("Boadwalk Empire"), Kyle Chandler ("Friday Night Lights"), Michael C. Hall ("Dexter"), Jon Hamm ("Mad Men"), Hugh Laurie ("House"), Timothy Olyphant ("Justified")
Who Will Win: Jon Hamm
Who Should Win: Kyle Chandler
Why: Steve Buscemi and Timothy Olyphant are the new kids on the block; voters can reward them in coming years. Kyle Chandler — who was snubbed last year and will be snubbed again this year — stars on a show that nearly nobody watches. Michael C. Hall's character is still a bit too edgy, and Hugh Laurie's "House" is no longer hot. Therefore, Jon Hamm — who lost to "Breaking Bad's" Bryan Cranston (who is ineligible this year due to "BB's" extended hiatus) the past three years — has it in the bag.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Nominees: Kathy Bates ("Harry's Law"), Connie Britton ("Friday Night Lights"), Mireille Enos ("The Killing"), Mariska Hargitay ("Law & Order: SVU"), Julianna Margulies ("The Good Wife"), Elisabeth Moss ("Mad Men")
Who Will Win: Julianna Margulies
Who Should Win: Connie Britton
Why: Margulies is magnificent as Alicia Florrick, and I'd be more than happy to see her win her second Emmy on Sunday evening (she won Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series in 1995 for her work on "ER"). But, let's be honest; Connie Britton delivered the best performance on TV — by a male or female — for each of "FNL's" criminally underrated five seasons. She's in a league of her own and should undoubtedly win, but Margulies simply stars on the bigger show.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Nominees: Alec Baldwin ("30 Rock"), Louis C.K. ("Louie"), Steve Carell ("The Office"), Johnny Galecki ("The Big Bang Theory"), Matt LeBlanc ("Episodes"), Jim Parsons ("The Big Bang Theory")
Who Will Win: Steve Carell
Who Should Win: Steve Carell
Why: If there's a lock to win come Sunday, it's Steve Carell, who is poised to win his first, much-deserved Emmy after starring on NBC's "The Office" for seven hit-or-miss seasons. Carell also happens to be the sentimental selection because his character, Michael Scott, permanently bid adieu to Dunder Mifflin back in May.

[Related: See the Full List of This Year's Emmy Nominees and Vote for Your Favorites]

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Nominees: Edie Falco ("Nurse Jackie"), Tina Fey ("30 Rock"), Laura Linney ("The Big C"), Melissa McCarthy ("Mike & Molly"), Martha Plimpton ("Raising Hope"), Amy Poehler ("Parks and Recreation")
Who Will Win: Laura Linney
Who Should Win: Amy Poehler
Why: Defending champ Edie Falco could give Laura Linney a run for her money because Academy voters adore her (she has four Emmy wins, one for "Nurse Jackie" and three for "The Sopranos"), but Linney will likely triumph over her fellow Showtime star (and the equally deserving Poehler) because her character on "The Big C," Cathy, was somehow able to make a cancer diagnosis comedic. As for Plimpton ... she should have a shot but doesn't; her nomination was a victory in and of itself.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Nominess: Peter Dinklage ("Game of Thrones"), Josh Charles ("The Good Wife"), Alan Cumming ("The Good Wife"), Walton Goggins ("Justified"), John Slattery ("Mad Men"), Andre Braugher ("Men of a Certain Age")
Who Will Win: John Slattery
Who Should Win: Peter Dinklage
Why: "Mad Men" is going to overshadow all other contenders on Emmy night, so don't be amazed to see the majority of its stars walking around with individual statuettes come the end of the evening. In addition, John Slattery delivered some serious emotional depth during the show's fourth season. That — combined with the fact that Charles and Cumming will likely cancel each other out, Goggins is green, and Braugher's show was axed — will allow the silver fox to walk away with the win ... unless Peter Dinklage sneaks out a surprise.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Nominees: Kelly Macdonald ("Boardwalk Empire"), Archie Panjabi ("The Good Wife"), Christine Baranski ("The Good Wife"), Margo Martindale ("Justified"), Michelle Forbes ("The Killing"), Christina Hendricks ("Mad Men")
Who Will Win: Margo Martindale
Who Should Win: Christine Baranski
Why: Any one of the six women nominated for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series could emerge victorious, but Margo Martindale has a slight edge on the field because she portrayed Mags Bennett, one of the greatest villains in television history. And who doesn't love a moonshine-swilling madwoman?

[Related: Why It's Called an Emmy]

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Nominees: Chris Colfer ("Glee"), Jesse Tyler Ferguson ("Modern Family"), Ed O'Neill ("Modern Family"), Eric Stonestreet ("Modern Family"), Ty Burrell ("Modern Family"), Jon Cryer ("Two and a Half Men")
Who Will Win: Ty Burrell
Who Should Win: Ty Burrell
Why: Everyone, including Academy members, is over "Glee" (and especially Chris Colfer's overly dramatic storyline), so count him out. You can also count out Jon Cryer, who will fall victim to "Two and a Half Men" backlash thanks to former co-star Charlie Sheen's off-screen antics. Who's left? A foursome of "Modern Family" men who all shined in Season 2. But, Burrell — who plays bumbling idiot Phil Dunphy — garnered the most laughs and, therefore, he'll garner the gold.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Nominess: Jane Lynch ("Glee"), Betty White ("Hot in Cleveland"), Julie Bowen ("Modern Family"), Sofia Vergara ("Modern Family"), Kristen Wiig ("Saturday Night Live"), Jane Krakowski ("30 Rock")
Who Will Win: Kristen Wiig
Who Should Win: Kristen Wiig
Why: "Bridesmaids." ‘nuff said.

Outstanding Reality-Competition Program
Nominees: "The Amazing Race," "American Idol," "Dancing With the Stars," "Project Runway," "So You Think You Can Dance," "Top Chef"
Who Will Win: "The Amazing Race"
Who Should Win: "Top Chef"
Why: My heart says "Chef" — which scored an upset win over "Race" last year — but my head says stick with the show that won the award seven consecutive times, from '03 to '09. Sidebar: "Big Brother" deserves a nom one of these years!

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